Carlos Prates vs Robbie Lawler
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-7-0Record30-16-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'11"
78″Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Vale Top TeamTeamKill Cliff FC
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1796
If they lose-12→ 1772
If they win+12→ 1800
If they lose-12→ 1776
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1708 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1760 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos PratesRobbie Lawler
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Prates73%
Robbie Lawler 27%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Prates a 73% favorite over Robbie Lawler in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Robbie Lawler's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1784 vs 1788), separated by just 4 points.
Carlos Prates enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Carlos Prates finishes 92% of wins inside the distance, Robbie Lawler 77%.
Carlos Prates and Robbie Lawler share 1 common opponent: Neil Magny.
Carlos Prates carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.