Carlos Ulberg vs Jan Błachowicz
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-1-0Record29-12-2
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
77"Reach78"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
City KickboxingTeamWCA Fight Team· 1652 avg Elo · 3 rated
What's at stake
Carlos Ulberg is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Jan Błachowicz carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1830
If they lose-20→ 1798
If they win+15→ 1748
If they lose-9→ 1724
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1712 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1759 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos UlbergJan Błachowicz
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Ulberg87%
Jan Błachowicz 13%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Ulberg a 87% favorite over Jan Błachowicz in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
Carlos Ulberg holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1818 to 1733, a 85-point edge.
Carlos Ulberg enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Carlos Ulberg finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Jan Błachowicz 62%.
Carlos Ulberg and Jan Błachowicz share 1 common opponent: Dominick Reyes.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.