Carlos Ulberg vs Magomed Ankalaev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-1-0Record21-2-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'4"Height6'3"
77"Reach75"
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
City KickboxingTeamGorets Fight Club· 1716 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Magomed Ankalaev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Carlos Ulberg carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1835
If they lose-15→ 1803
If they win+15→ 1863
If they lose-17→ 1831
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1712 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1731 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos UlbergMagomed Ankalaev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Carlos Ulberg and Magomed Ankalaev within a point of even.
Magomed Ankalaev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1848 to 1818, a 30-point edge.
Carlos Ulberg enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Carlos Ulberg finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Magomed Ankalaev 52%.
Carlos Ulberg and Magomed Ankalaev share 2 common opponents: Jan Błachowicz and Volkan Oezdemir.
Carlos Ulberg carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.