Carlos Ulberg vs Ryan Bader
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-1-0Record31-8-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'4"Height6'2"
77"Reach74,0"
205 lbsWeight232 lbs
City KickboxingTeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1834
If they lose-16→ 1802
If they win+12→ 1835
If they lose-12→ 1811
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1712 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlos UlbergRyan Bader
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlos Ulberg75%
Ryan Bader 25%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlos Ulberg a 75% favorite over Ryan Bader in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Ryan Bader's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1818 vs 1823), separated by just 5 points.
Carlos Ulberg enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Carlos Ulberg finishes 71% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.
Carlos Ulberg carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.