Combat Edge Intelligence

Carls John De Tomas vs Naoki Inoue

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-5-0Record21-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'5"Height5'8"
TBDReach71"
135 lbsWeight134 lbs
De Tomas MMATeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Naoki Inoue is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Carls John De Tomas carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Carls John De TomasNow 1452
If they win+39→ 1491
If they lose-9→ 1443
Naoki InoueNow 1710
If they win+4→ 1714
If they lose-20→ 1690

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1632 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1572 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.74
Sig. strikes / min
3.67
37%
Strike accuracy
35%
3.93
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.37
45%
Strike defense
61%
1.37
Takedown avg.
0
33%
Takedown accuracy
0%
67%
Takedown defense
60%
0
Submission avg.
2.50

Trajectory

Carls John De TomasNaoki Inoue
15001600170020252026

Win method breakdown

1 (11%)
KO/TKO
2 (10%)
4 (44%)
Submission
9 (43%)
4 (44%)
Decision
10 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Naoki Inoue92%
Carls John De Tomas 8%Elo baseline: 82%

The Combat Edge model makes Naoki Inoue a 92% favorite over Carls John De Tomas in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (82%).

Naoki Inoue holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1710 to 1452, a 258-point edge.

Carls John De Tomas enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Carls John De Tomas finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Naoki Inoue 52%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.