Carlston Harris vs Keita Nakamura
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record36-12-2
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
6'0"Height5'11"
76"Reach73,0"
170 lbsWeight156 lbs
Renovacao Fight TeamTeamUnited Gym Tokyo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1706
If they lose-16→ 1674
If they win+12→ 1704
If they lose-12→ 1680
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1637 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlston HarrisKeita Nakamura
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlston Harris70%
Keita Nakamura 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlston Harris a 70% favorite over Keita Nakamura in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Keita Nakamura's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1690 vs 1692), separated by just 2 points.
Carlston Harris enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Carlston Harris finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Keita Nakamura 69%.
Carlston Harris carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.