Carlston Harris vs Michael Chiesa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
19-8-0Record20-7-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'1"
76"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
What's at stake
Michael Chiesa is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Carlston Harris carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1709
If they lose-13→ 1677
If they win+10→ 1768
If they lose-14→ 1744
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlston HarrisMichael Chiesa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Michael Chiesa70%
Carlston Harris 30%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Michael Chiesa a 70% favorite over Carlston Harris in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Michael Chiesa holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1758 to 1690, a 68-point edge.
Carlston Harris enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Michael Chiesa enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Carlston Harris finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Michael Chiesa 65%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.