Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlston Harris vs Santiago Ponzinibbio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-8-0Record30-9-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'0"
76"Reach73″
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Renovacao Fight TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Santiago Ponzinibbio is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Carlston Harris carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Carlston HarrisNow 1684
If they win+17→ 1701
If they lose-15→ 1669
Santiago PonzinibbioNow 1712
If they win+11→ 1723
If they lose-13→ 1699

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1721 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.79
Sig. strikes / min
4.78
44%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.68
54%
Strike defense
62%
1.46
Takedown avg.
0.60
23%
Takedown accuracy
27%
56%
Takedown defense
71%
0.59
Submission avg.
0

Trajectory

Carlston HarrisSantiago Ponzinibbio
170017502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (26%)
KO/TKO
17 (57%)
6 (32%)
Submission
6 (20%)
8 (42%)
Decision
7 (23%)

Combat Edge model read

Santiago Ponzinibbio51%
Carlston Harris 49%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Santiago Ponzinibbio a 51% favorite over Carlston Harris in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Santiago Ponzinibbio holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1712 to 1684, a 28-point edge.

Carlston Harris enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Carlston Harris finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Santiago Ponzinibbio 77%.

Carlston Harris carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.