Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlston Harris vs Shavkat Rakhmonov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

19-8-0Record19-0-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height6'1"
76"Reach77"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Renovacao Fight TeamTeamKazakhstan Top Team

What's at stake

Shavkat Rakhmonov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Carlston Harris carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Carlston HarrisNow 1684
If they win+23→ 1707
If they lose-9→ 1675
Shavkat RakhmonovNow 1848
If they win+9→ 1857
If they lose-23→ 1825

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1679 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1690 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.79
Sig. strikes / min
3.25
44%
Strike accuracy
60%
3.46
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.17
54%
Strike defense
51%
1.46
Takedown avg.
1.40
23%
Takedown accuracy
26%
56%
Takedown defense
86%
0.59
Submission avg.
1.20

Trajectory

Carlston HarrisShavkat Rakhmonov
17001750180018502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (26%)
KO/TKO
8 (42%)
6 (32%)
Submission
10 (53%)
8 (42%)
Decision
1 (5%)

Combat Edge model read

Shavkat Rakhmonov87%
Carlston Harris 13%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Shavkat Rakhmonov a 87% favorite over Carlston Harris in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Shavkat Rakhmonov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1848 to 1684, a 164-point edge.

Carlston Harris enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Shavkat Rakhmonov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Carlston Harris finishes 58% of wins inside the distance, Shavkat Rakhmonov 95%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.