Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlton Minus vs Erick Maia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record9-4-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'6"
75,0"Reach-
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Avalanche Wrestling AssociationTeamLabareda Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlton MinusNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583
Erick MaiaNow 1597
If they win+16→ 1613
If they lose-16→ 1581

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1522 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.50
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
40%
Strike accuracy
TBD
4.97
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
50%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
59%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Carlton MinusErick Maia
15001550160016502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (71%)
KO/TKO
2 (22%)
1 (7%)
Submission
6 (67%)
3 (21%)
Decision
1 (11%)

Combat Edge model read

Erick Maia59%
Carlton Minus 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Erick Maia a 59% favorite over Carlton Minus in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Carlton Minus's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1597), separated by just 2 points.

Erick Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Carlton Minus finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Erick Maia 89%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.