Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlton Minus vs Mac Danzig

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record22-12-1
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
75,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Avalanche Wrestling AssociationTeamDanzig MMA

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlton MinusNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583
Mac DanzigNow 1597
If they win+12→ 1609
If they lose-12→ 1585

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1618 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.50
Sig. strikes / min
3.39
40%
Strike accuracy
49%
4.97
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.44
50%
Strike defense
57%
0
Takedown avg.
1.20
0%
Takedown accuracy
38%
59%
Takedown defense
46%
0
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Carlton MinusMac Danzig
1600165020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

10 (71%)
KO/TKO
5 (23%)
1 (7%)
Submission
11 (50%)
3 (21%)
Decision
6 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Carlton Minus62%
Mac Danzig 38%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Carlton Minus a 62% favorite over Mac Danzig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1597), separated by just 2 points.

Carlton Minus finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Mac Danzig 73%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.