Carlton Minus vs Matthew Semelsberger
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-5-0Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
75,0"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Avalanche Wrestling AssociationTeamClinch Academy
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583
If they win+16→ 1624
If they lose-16→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1647 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carlton MinusMatthew Semelsberger
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carlton Minus52%
Matthew Semelsberger 48%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Carlton Minus a 52% favorite over Matthew Semelsberger in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Matthew Semelsberger's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1608), separated by just 9 points.
Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Carlton Minus finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.