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Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlton Minus vs Matthew Semelsberger

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Official bout pages

New comparison

This page compares both fighters across their careers. Event-specific previews, results, round stats, and bout facts live on the separate official Fight page for each meeting.

Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record11-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height6'1"
75,0"Reach75"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Avalanche Wrestling AssociationTeamClinch Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlton MinusNow 1600
If they win+16→ 1616
If they lose-16→ 1584
Matthew SemelsbergerNow 1596
If they win+16→ 1612
If they lose-16→ 1580

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1545 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1648 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.

3.50
Sig. strikes / min
3.77
40%
Strike accuracy
43%
4.97
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.24
50%
Strike defense
54%
0
Takedown avg.
1.01
0%
Takedown accuracy
57%
59%
Takedown defense
46%
0
Submission avg.
0.38

Trajectory

Carlton MinusMatthew Semelsberger
16001650202320242025

Win method breakdown

10 (71%)
KO/TKO
6 (55%)
1 (7%)
Submission
1 (9%)
3 (21%)
Decision
4 (36%)

Combat Edge model read

Matthew Semelsberger54%
Carlton Minus 46%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Matthew Semelsberger a 54% favorite over Carlton Minus in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Carlton Minus's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1600 vs 1596), separated by just 4 points.

Matthew Semelsberger enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Carlton Minus finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Matthew Semelsberger 64%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.