Combat Edge Intelligence

Carlton Minus vs Mitch Clarke

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Mitch Clarke
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Mitch Clarke

“Danger Zone”

11-5-0LightweightUFC

1599Solid

Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record11-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
75,0"Reach73,0"
170 lbsWeight154 lbs
Avalanche Wrestling AssociationTeamTBD

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Carlton MinusNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583
Mitch ClarkeNow 1599
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-16→ 1583

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1543 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1578 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.50
Sig. strikes / min
2.35
40%
Strike accuracy
34%
4.97
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.27
50%
Strike defense
48%
0
Takedown avg.
0.64
0%
Takedown accuracy
15%
59%
Takedown defense
50%
0
Submission avg.
0.43

Trajectory

Carlton MinusMitch Clarke
160016502016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

10 (71%)
KO/TKO
1 (9%)
1 (7%)
Submission
7 (64%)
3 (21%)
Decision
3 (27%)

Combat Edge model read

Carlton Minus59%
Mitch Clarke 41%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Carlton Minus a 59% favorite over Mitch Clarke in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1599 vs 1599), separated by just 0 points.

Mitch Clarke enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Carlton Minus finishes 79% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Clarke 73%.

Carlton Minus carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.