Carmelo Marrero vs Dauren Ermekov
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record18-7-0
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
255 lbsWeight187 lbs
American Top TeamTeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634
If they win+12→ 1661
If they lose-12→ 1637
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1577 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carmelo MarreroDauren Ermekov
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dauren Ermekov66%
Carmelo Marrero 34%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Dauren Ermekov a 66% favorite over Carmelo Marrero in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Carmelo Marrero's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1650 vs 1649), separated by just 1 points.
Carmelo Marrero enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Carmelo Marrero finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Dauren Ermekov 56%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.