Carmelo Marrero vs Gabriel Gonzaga
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record17-12-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReach42,0"
255 lbsWeight264 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Link
What's at stake
Carmelo Marrero is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Gabriel Gonzaga carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1664
If they lose-18→ 1632
If they win+13→ 1625
If they lose-11→ 1601
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carmelo MarreroGabriel Gonzaga
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carmelo Marrero67%
Gabriel Gonzaga 33%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Carmelo Marrero a 67% favorite over Gabriel Gonzaga in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Carmelo Marrero holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1650 to 1612, a 38-point edge.
Carmelo Marrero enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Carmelo Marrero finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Gabriel Gonzaga 94%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.