Carmelo Marrero vs Ryan Bader
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record31-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReach74,0"
255 lbsWeight232 lbs
American Top TeamTeamPower MMA Team
What's at stake
Ryan Bader is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Carmelo Marrero carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1673
If they lose-9→ 1641
If they win+6→ 1829
If they lose-18→ 1805
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carmelo MarreroRyan Bader
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryan Bader83%
Carmelo Marrero 17%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryan Bader a 83% favorite over Carmelo Marrero in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Ryan Bader holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1823 to 1650, a 173-point edge.
Carmelo Marrero enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Carmelo Marrero finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Ryan Bader 52%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.