Carmelo Marrero vs Wilson Gouveia
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-6-0Record14-8-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
255 lbsWeight219 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Carmelo Marrero is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Wilson Gouveia carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1663
If they lose-19→ 1631
If they win+19→ 1605
If they lose-13→ 1573
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1519 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1598 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Carmelo MarreroWilson Gouveia
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Carmelo Marrero70%
Wilson Gouveia 30%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Carmelo Marrero a 70% favorite over Wilson Gouveia in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Carmelo Marrero holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1650 to 1586, a 64-point edge.
Carmelo Marrero enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Wilson Gouveia enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Carmelo Marrero finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Gouveia 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.