Casey Kenney vs Louis Smolka
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-4-1Record17-9-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'9"
70,0"Reach68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Rise Combat SportsTeamTeam Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 rated
What's at stake
Casey Kenney is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Louis Smolka carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1737
If they lose-20→ 1705
If they win+15→ 1645
If they lose-9→ 1621
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1664 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1570 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Casey KenneyLouis Smolka
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Casey Kenney78%
Louis Smolka 22%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Casey Kenney a 78% favorite over Louis Smolka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Casey Kenney holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1725 to 1630, a 95-point edge.
Casey Kenney enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Louis Smolka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Casey Kenney finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Louis Smolka 88%.
Casey Kenney carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.