Combat Edge Intelligence

Casey Kenney vs Merab Dvalishvili

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

16-4-1Record21-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'7"Height5'6"
70,0"Reach 68"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Rise Combat SportsTeamSerra-Longo Fight Team

What's at stake

Merab Dvalishvili is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Casey Kenney carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Casey KenneyNow 1725
If they win+21→ 1746
If they lose-11→ 1714
Merab DvalishviliNow 1843
If they win+8→ 1851
If they lose-16→ 1827

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1664 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1789 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.85
Sig. strikes / min
4.33
43%
Strike accuracy
42%
4.67
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.55
58%
Strike defense
56%
1.09
Takedown avg.
6.40
36%
Takedown accuracy
38%
61%
Takedown defense
83%
0.43
Submission avg.
0.27

Trajectory

Casey KenneyMerab Dvalishvili
17001750180018502019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (13%)
KO/TKO
3 (14%)
5 (31%)
Submission
2 (10%)
9 (56%)
Decision
16 (76%)

Combat Edge model read

Merab Dvalishvili78%
Casey Kenney 22%Elo baseline: 66%

The Combat Edge model makes Merab Dvalishvili a 78% favorite over Casey Kenney in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (66%).

Merab Dvalishvili holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1843 to 1725, a 118-point edge.

Casey Kenney enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Casey Kenney finishes 44% of wins inside the distance, Merab Dvalishvili 24%.

Casey Kenney carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.