Combat Edge Intelligence

Casey O'Neill vs Lara Procopio

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-2-0Record9-2-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'6"Height5'4"
69"ReachTBD
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Xtreme CoutureTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Casey O'Neill is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Lara Procopio carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Casey O'NeillNow 1682
If they win+13→ 1695
If they lose-19→ 1663
Lara ProcopioNow 1614
If they win+19→ 1633
If they lose-13→ 1601

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1595 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1513 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

7.89
Sig. strikes / min
5.64
53%
Strike accuracy
59%
5.65
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
6.50
57%
Strike defense
47%
1.45
Takedown avg.
3.15
35%
Takedown accuracy
47%
70%
Takedown defense
50%
0.73
Submission avg.
0.35

Trajectory

Casey O'NeillLara Procopio
16001650170020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

4 (36%)
KO/TKO
1 (11%)
2 (18%)
Submission
3 (33%)
5 (45%)
Decision
5 (56%)

Combat Edge model read

Casey O'Neill67%
Lara Procopio 33%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Casey O'Neill a 67% favorite over Lara Procopio in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Casey O'Neill holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1682 to 1614, a 68-point edge.

Casey O'Neill enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Lara Procopio enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Casey O'Neill finishes 55% of wins inside the distance, Lara Procopio 44%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.