Casey Ryan vs Fraser Paterson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
9-4-0Record2-0-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'4"Height6'2"
TBDReach-
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Alliance MMATeamGriphouse
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1578
If they lose-16→ 1546
If they win+24→ 1588
If they lose-24→ 1540
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1484 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1557 · 2 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Casey RyanFraser Paterson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Fraser Paterson70%
Casey Ryan 30%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Fraser Paterson a 70% favorite over Casey Ryan in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1562 vs 1564), separated by just 2 points.
Fraser Paterson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Casey Ryan finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.