Combat Edge Intelligence

Cathal Pendred vs Tom Breese

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

17-4-1Record18-5-0
WelterweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'1"Height6'3"
75,0"ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight205 lbs
SBG IrelandTeamTeam Renegade

What's at stake

Cathal Pendred is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Tom Breese carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cathal PendredNow 1693
If they win+15→ 1708
If they lose-17→ 1676
Tom BreeseNow 1662
If they win+13→ 1675
If they lose-11→ 1651

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1618 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1593 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.49
Sig. strikes / min
3.34
45%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.01
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.81
56%
Strike defense
61%
2.46
Takedown avg.
0
24%
Takedown accuracy
0%
83%
Takedown defense
71%
0.41
Submission avg.
1.07

Trajectory

Cathal PendredTom Breese
16501700175020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (35%)
KO/TKO
5 (28%)
1 (6%)
Submission
12 (67%)
10 (59%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Cathal Pendred and Tom Breese within a point of even.

Cathal Pendred holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1693 to 1662, a 31-point edge.

Cathal Pendred enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Tom Breese enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Cathal Pendred finishes 41% of wins inside the distance, Tom Breese 94%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.