Combat Edge Intelligence

Cesar Gracie vs Geoff Pavey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Geoff Pavey

Geoff Pavey

“JiuJitsu”

3-3-0MiddleweightCWFC

1501Average

Tale of the tape

0-1-0Record3-3-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
TBDHeight6'5"
TBDReach-
181 lbsWeight186 lbs
Cesar Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamSensei MMA

What's at stake

Geoff Pavey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Cesar Gracie carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cesar GracieNow 1486
If they win+25→ 1511
If they lose-23→ 1463
Geoff PaveyNow 1501
If they win+23→ 1524
If they lose-25→ 1476

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1701 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1515 · 6 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Cesar GracieGeoff Pavey
14501500155020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
3 (100%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Geoff Pavey79%
Cesar Gracie 21%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Geoff Pavey a 79% favorite over Cesar Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Geoff Pavey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1501 to 1486, a 15-point edge.

Geoff Pavey 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.