Combat Edge Intelligence

Cesar Gracie vs Marcio Cabral

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

0-1-0Record13-4-0
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
TBDHeight6'1"
TBDReach-
181 lbsWeight185 lbs
Cesar Gracie Jiu-JitsuTeamBonfim Brothers· 1595 avg Elo · 4 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Cesar GracieNow 1486
If they win+25→ 1511
If they lose-23→ 1463
Marcio CabralNow 1499
If they win+23→ 1522
If they lose-25→ 1474

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1701 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 7 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
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Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
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Takedown accuracy
TBD
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Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Cesar GracieMarcio Cabral
1450150020072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
9 (69%)
0 (0%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (31%)

Combat Edge model read

Marcio Cabral72%
Cesar Gracie 28%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Marcio Cabral a 72% favorite over Cesar Gracie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1486 vs 1499), separated by just 13 points.

Marcio Cabral 69%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.