Combat Edge Intelligence

Cezar Ferreira vs Sam Alvey

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Sam Alvey
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Sam Alvey

“Smile'n”

34-18-1MiddleweightB2FS

1640Solid

Tale of the tape

14-11-0Record34-18-1
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReach75"
216 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA MastersTeamTeam Quest

What's at stake

Sam Alvey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Cezar Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Cezar FerreiraNow 1591
If they win+14→ 1605
If they lose-10→ 1581
Sam AlveyNow 1640
If they win+10→ 1650
If they lose-14→ 1626

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1664 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.90
Sig. strikes / min
3.28
43%
Strike accuracy
45%
2.44
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.63
54%
Strike defense
53%
2.69
Takedown avg.
0.06
54%
Takedown accuracy
14%
85%
Takedown defense
82%
0.48
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Cezar FerreiraSam Alvey
160016501700202120222023

Win method breakdown

4 (29%)
KO/TKO
20 (59%)
4 (29%)
Submission
3 (9%)
6 (43%)
Decision
11 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Sam Alvey63%
Cezar Ferreira 37%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Sam Alvey a 63% favorite over Cezar Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Sam Alvey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1640 to 1591, a 49-point edge.

Cezar Ferreira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Cezar Ferreira finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.