Cezar Ferreira vs Sam Alvey
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-11-0Record34-18-1
HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReach75"
216 lbsWeight185 lbs
MMA MastersTeamTeam Quest
What's at stake
Sam Alvey is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Cezar Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1606
If they lose-10→ 1582
If they win+10→ 1647
If they lose-14→ 1623
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1663 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Cezar FerreiraSam Alvey
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sam Alvey71%
Cezar Ferreira 29%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Sam Alvey a 71% favorite over Cezar Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Sam Alvey holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1637 to 1592, a 45-point edge.
Cezar Ferreira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Cezar Ferreira finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Sam Alvey 68%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.