Cezar Ferreira vs Thiago Santos
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
14-11-0Record22-13-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'1"Height6'2"
TBDReach 76"
216 lbsWeight241 lbs
MMA MastersTeamTeam Marreta
What's at stake
Thiago Santos is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Cezar Ferreira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1606
If they lose-9→ 1582
If they win+9→ 1703
If they lose-15→ 1679
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1655 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1743 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Cezar FerreiraThiago Santos
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thiago Santos64%
Cezar Ferreira 36%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Thiago Santos a 64% favorite over Cezar Ferreira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Thiago Santos holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1694 to 1591, a 103-point edge.
Cezar Ferreira enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Thiago Santos enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Cezar Ferreira finishes 57% of wins inside the distance, Thiago Santos 73%.
Cezar Ferreira and Thiago Santos share 1 common opponent: Denis Goltsov.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.