Chad Johnson vs Matheus Scheffel
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-0Record17-11-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
227 lbsWeight262 lbs
Roufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamCM System· 1632 avg Elo · 5 rated
What's at stake
Matheus Scheffel is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Chad Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1523
If they lose-15→ 1491
If they win+11→ 1535
If they lose-13→ 1511
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1506 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1620 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chad JohnsonMatheus Scheffel
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Matheus Scheffel59%
Chad Johnson 41%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Matheus Scheffel a 59% favorite over Chad Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Matheus Scheffel holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1524 to 1506, a 18-point edge.
Chad Johnson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Matheus Scheffel enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Chad Johnson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Scheffel 71%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.