Chad Johnson vs Roggers Souza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-0Record15-10-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height6'4"
TBDReach79"
227 lbsWeight265 lbs
Roufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamAlcateia MMA
What's at stake
Roggers Souza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Chad Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+17→ 1523
If they lose-15→ 1491
If they win+15→ 1545
If they lose-17→ 1513
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1506 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1560 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chad JohnsonRoggers Souza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Roggers Souza63%
Chad Johnson 37%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Roggers Souza a 63% favorite over Chad Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Roggers Souza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1530 to 1506, a 24-point edge.
Chad Johnson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Roggers Souza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Chad Johnson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Roggers Souza 93%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.