Chad Johnson vs Ryo Sakai
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
6-4-0Record15-16-0
HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'2"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
227 lbsWeight246 lbs
Roufusport· 1700 avg Elo · 7 ratedTeamRanger Gym
What's at stake
Chad Johnson is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Ryo Sakai carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1521
If they lose-17→ 1489
If they win+13→ 1504
If they lose-11→ 1480
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1506 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1527 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chad JohnsonRyo Sakai
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ryo Sakai78%
Chad Johnson 22%Elo baseline: 48%
The Combat Edge model makes Ryo Sakai a 78% favorite over Chad Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chad Johnson's way (48%).
Chad Johnson holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1506 to 1491, a 15-point edge.
Chad Johnson enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ryo Sakai enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chad Johnson finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ryo Sakai 67%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.