Combat Edge Intelligence

Chad Leonhardt vs Joaquin Garcia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

9-5-0Record3-1-0
WelterweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'1"
TBDReach-
171 lbsWeight175 lbs
Gladiators AcademyTeamTeam Oyama· 1645 avg Elo · 6 rated

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chad LeonhardtNow 1546
If they win+16→ 1562
If they lose-16→ 1530
Joaquin GarciaNow 1548
If they win+24→ 1572
If they lose-24→ 1524

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1510 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1511 · 4 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
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Strike accuracy
TBD
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Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
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Strike defense
TBD
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Takedown avg.
TBD
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Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
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Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Chad LeonhardtJoaquin Garcia
15502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

7 (78%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Submission
3 (100%)
2 (22%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Joaquin Garcia84%
Chad Leonhardt 16%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Joaquin Garcia a 84% favorite over Chad Leonhardt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1546 vs 1548), separated by just 2 points.

Chad Leonhardt enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Chad Leonhardt finishes 78% of wins inside the distance, Joaquin Garcia 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.