Chad Mendes vs Clay Guida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-0Record38-25-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'7"
66"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
Chad Mendes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1718
If they lose-21→ 1686
If they win+16→ 1615
If they lose-8→ 1591
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chad MendesClay Guida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chad Mendes82%
Clay Guida 18%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Chad Mendes a 82% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Chad Mendes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1599, a 108-point edge.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Chad Mendes finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Clay Guida 57%.
Clay Guida carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.