Combat Edge Intelligence

Chad Mendes vs Cody McKenzie

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Chad Mendes
us

Chad Mendes

“Money”

18-5-0FeatherweightUFC

1707Good

Tale of the tape

18-5-0Record17-11-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'6"Height6'0"
66"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamWarrior Camp

What's at stake

Chad Mendes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Cody McKenzie carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chad MendesNow 1707
If they win+9→ 1716
If they lose-23→ 1684
Cody McKenzieNow 1544
If they win+17→ 1561
If they lose-7→ 1537

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1539 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.78
Sig. strikes / min
1.74
50%
Strike accuracy
34%
2.35
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.50
67%
Strike defense
67%
4.13
Takedown avg.
2.50
56%
Takedown accuracy
25%
100%
Takedown defense
14%
0.28
Submission avg.
2.50

Trajectory

Chad MendesCody McKenzie
1550160016501700201920202021

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
1 (6%)
2 (11%)
Submission
15 (88%)
8 (44%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Chad Mendes81%
Cody McKenzie 19%Elo baseline: 72%

The Combat Edge model makes Chad Mendes a 81% favorite over Cody McKenzie in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).

Chad Mendes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1544, a 163-point edge.

Chad Mendes finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Cody McKenzie 94%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.