Chad Mendes vs Conor McGregor
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-0Record22-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'6"Height5'8"
66"Reach74"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamSBG Ireland
What's at stake
Conor McGregor is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Chad Mendes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+19→ 1726
If they lose-13→ 1694
If they win+13→ 1787
If they lose-19→ 1755
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1751 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chad MendesConor McGregor
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Conor McGregor78%
Chad Mendes 22%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Conor McGregor a 78% favorite over Chad Mendes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Conor McGregor holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1707, a 67-point edge.
Conor McGregor enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Chad Mendes finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Conor McGregor 91%.
Chad Mendes and Conor McGregor share 1 common opponent: José Aldo.
Conor McGregor carries a 8-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.
Common opponents (1)
LossDecision - Unanimous · 2014
WinKO/TKO · 2015