Chad Mendes vs Darren Elkins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-0Record29-12-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'10"
66"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamDuneland Vale Tudo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1723
If they lose-16→ 1691
If they win+12→ 1711
If they lose-12→ 1687
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1652 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chad MendesDarren Elkins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chad Mendes63%
Darren Elkins 37%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Chad Mendes a 63% favorite over Darren Elkins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1707 vs 1699), separated by just 8 points.
Chad Mendes finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Darren Elkins 52%.
Darren Elkins carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.