Chad Mendes vs Darren Elkins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-0Record29-13-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'10"
66"Reach71"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 21 ratedTeamDuneland Vale Tudo
What's at stake
Chad Mendes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Darren Elkins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1722
If they lose-17→ 1690
If they win+13→ 1698
If they lose-11→ 1674
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1658 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chad MendesDarren Elkins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Chad Mendes and Darren Elkins within a point of even.
Chad Mendes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1685, a 22-point edge.
Darren Elkins enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Chad Mendes finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Darren Elkins 52%.
Darren Elkins carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.