Chad Mendes vs Michihiro Omigawa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-0Record18-15-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'6"
66"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1646 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamNeo Judo Academy
What's at stake
Chad Mendes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +14 while a loss costs more — Michihiro Omigawa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1721
If they lose-18→ 1689
If they win+14→ 1672
If they lose-10→ 1648
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1553 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chad MendesMichihiro Omigawa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chad Mendes82%
Michihiro Omigawa 18%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Chad Mendes a 82% favorite over Michihiro Omigawa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Chad Mendes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1658, a 49-point edge.
Chad Mendes finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Michihiro Omigawa 53%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.