Combat Edge Intelligence

Chad Mendes vs Michihiro Omigawa

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Chad Mendes
us

Chad Mendes

“Money”

18-5-0FeatherweightUFC

1707Good

Tale of the tape

18-5-0Record19-15-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'6"
66"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha MaleTeamNeo Judo Academy

What's at stake

Chad Mendes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +13 while a loss costs more — Michihiro Omigawa carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chad MendesNow 1707
If they win+13→ 1720
If they lose-19→ 1688
Michihiro OmigawaNow 1644
If they win+14→ 1658
If they lose-10→ 1634

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1555 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.78
Sig. strikes / min
2.01
50%
Strike accuracy
40%
2.35
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.06
67%
Strike defense
64%
4.13
Takedown avg.
1.19
56%
Takedown accuracy
37%
100%
Takedown defense
49%
0.28
Submission avg.
1.51

Trajectory

Chad MendesMichihiro Omigawa
165017002019202020212022

Win method breakdown

8 (44%)
KO/TKO
5 (26%)
2 (11%)
Submission
5 (26%)
8 (44%)
Decision
9 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

Chad Mendes78%
Michihiro Omigawa 22%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Chad Mendes a 78% favorite over Michihiro Omigawa in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Chad Mendes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1644, a 63-point edge.

Chad Mendes finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Michihiro Omigawa 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.