Chad Mendes vs Yaotzin Meza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
18-5-0Record23-11-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'6"Height5'9"
66"Reach39,0"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
Team Alpha Male· 1645 avg Elo · 20 ratedTeamMMA Lab
What's at stake
Chad Mendes is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +12 while a loss costs more — Yaotzin Meza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+12→ 1719
If they lose-20→ 1687
If they win+15→ 1629
If they lose-9→ 1605
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1723 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1565 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chad MendesYaotzin Meza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chad Mendes76%
Yaotzin Meza 24%Elo baseline: 63%
The Combat Edge model makes Chad Mendes a 76% favorite over Yaotzin Meza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (63%).
Chad Mendes holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1707 to 1614, a 93-point edge.
Chad Mendes finishes 56% of wins inside the distance, Yaotzin Meza 61%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.