Chad Yard vs Leonardo Guimaraes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record15-14-1
HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'3"Height6'0"
75"Reach73"
223 lbsWeight205 lbs
Fight FactoryTeamTata Fight Team· 1516 avg Elo · 4 rated
What's at stake
Chad Yard is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Leonardo Guimaraes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1493
If they lose-27→ 1445
If they win+18→ 1441
If they lose-14→ 1409
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1512 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1526 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Chad YardLeonardo Guimaraes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Chad Yard72%
Leonardo Guimaraes 28%Elo baseline: 57%
The Combat Edge model makes Chad Yard a 72% favorite over Leonardo Guimaraes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).
Chad Yard holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1472 to 1423, a 49-point edge.
Leonardo Guimaraes 80%.
Chad Yard carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.