Combat Edge Intelligence

Chael Sonnen vs Demian Maia

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

31-17-1Record28-11-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height6'0"
73"ReachTBD
205 lbsWeight170 lbs
Team QuestTeamDemian Maia Jiu-Jitsu

What's at stake

Demian Maia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Chael Sonnen carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chael SonnenNow 1672
If they win+15→ 1687
If they lose-9→ 1663
Demian MaiaNow 1774
If they win+9→ 1783
If they lose-15→ 1759

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1763 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1768 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.10
Sig. strikes / min
1.80
44%
Strike accuracy
44%
1.12
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.07
63%
Strike defense
64%
3.78
Takedown avg.
2.49
59%
Takedown accuracy
25%
67%
Takedown defense
62%
0.41
Submission avg.
0.99

Trajectory

Chael SonnenDemian Maia
16501700175018002018201920202021

Win method breakdown

8 (26%)
KO/TKO
3 (11%)
4 (13%)
Submission
14 (50%)
19 (61%)
Decision
11 (39%)

Combat Edge model read

Demian Maia78%
Chael Sonnen 22%Elo baseline: 64%

The Combat Edge model makes Demian Maia a 78% favorite over Chael Sonnen in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).

Demian Maia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1774 to 1672, a 102-point edge.

Chael Sonnen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Demian Maia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Chael Sonnen finishes 39% of wins inside the distance, Demian Maia 61%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.