Combat Edge Intelligence

Chael Sonnen vs Nate Marquardt

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

31-17-1Record36-20-2
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'1"Height6'0"
73"Reach42,0"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team QuestTeamHigh Altitude Martial Arts

What's at stake

Chael Sonnen is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Nate Marquardt carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chael SonnenNow 1672
If they win+11→ 1683
If they lose-13→ 1659
Nate MarquardtNow 1651
If they win+13→ 1664
If they lose-11→ 1640

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1763 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1622 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.10
Sig. strikes / min
2.71
44%
Strike accuracy
49%
1.12
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.32
63%
Strike defense
56%
3.78
Takedown avg.
1.87
59%
Takedown accuracy
51%
67%
Takedown defense
71%
0.41
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Chael SonnenNate Marquardt
165017002018201920202021

Win method breakdown

8 (26%)
KO/TKO
13 (36%)
4 (13%)
Submission
15 (42%)
19 (61%)
Decision
8 (22%)

Combat Edge model read

Chael Sonnen56%
Nate Marquardt 44%Elo baseline: 53%

The Combat Edge model makes Chael Sonnen a 56% favorite over Nate Marquardt in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).

Chael Sonnen holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1672 to 1651, a 21-point edge.

Chael Sonnen enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Chael Sonnen finishes 39% of wins inside the distance, Nate Marquardt 78%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.