Combat Edge Intelligence

Chance Farrar vs Marco Novák

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

8-3-0Record7-3-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'11"
TBDReach-
145 lbsWeight146 lbs
TeamHanuman Gym Bratislava

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Chance FarrarNow 1578
If they win+16→ 1594
If they lose-16→ 1562
Marco NovákNow 1579
If they win+16→ 1595
If they lose-16→ 1563

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1534 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

0.81
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
22%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.21
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
68%
Strike defense
TBD
3.02
Takedown avg.
TBD
100%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
0
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Chance FarrarMarco Novák
155016002008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

6 (75%)
KO/TKO
2 (29%)
1 (13%)
Submission
2 (29%)
1 (13%)
Decision
3 (43%)

Combat Edge model read

Marco Novák56%
Chance Farrar 44%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Marco Novák a 56% favorite over Chance Farrar in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1578 vs 1579), separated by just 1 points.

Chance Farrar finishes 88% of wins inside the distance, Marco Novák 57%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.