Chance Rencountre vs Egor Kostyuchenko
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record8-1-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'2"
75,0"Reach73"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeam
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1666
If they lose-16→ 1634
If they win+24→ 1673
If they lose-24→ 1625
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1591 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1524 · 9 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chance RencountreEgor Kostyuchenko
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Egor Kostyuchenko53%
Chance Rencountre 47%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Egor Kostyuchenko a 53% favorite over Chance Rencountre in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Chance Rencountre's way (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1650 vs 1649), separated by just 1 points.
Egor Kostyuchenko enters on a 3-fight win streak.
Chance Rencountre finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Egor Kostyuchenko 38%.
Chance Rencountre carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.