Combat Edge Intelligence

Chance Rencountre vs Ismail Naurdiev

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Ismail Naurdiev
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Ismail Naurdiev

“The Austrian Wonderboy”

25-8-0WelterweightUFC

1664Good

Tale of the tape

16-5-0Record25-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
75,0"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Alliance MMATeamTop Team Salzburg

What's at stake

Ismail Naurdiev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Chance Rencountre carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Chance RencountreNow 1649
If they win+17→ 1666
If they lose-15→ 1634
Ismail NaurdievNow 1664
If they win+11→ 1675
If they lose-13→ 1651

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1590 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1585 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.10
Sig. strikes / min
3.66
21%
Strike accuracy
53%
3.62
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
49%
Strike defense
65%
1.35
Takedown avg.
1.48
27%
Takedown accuracy
41%
17%
Takedown defense
73%
0.34
Submission avg.
0.16

Trajectory

Chance RencountreIsmail Naurdiev
1650202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

6 (38%)
KO/TKO
13 (52%)
5 (31%)
Submission
6 (24%)
5 (31%)
Decision
6 (24%)

Combat Edge model read

Ismail Naurdiev70%
Chance Rencountre 30%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Ismail Naurdiev a 70% favorite over Chance Rencountre in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Ismail Naurdiev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1664 to 1649, a 15-point edge.

Chance Rencountre finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Ismail Naurdiev 76%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.