Chance Rencountre vs Ismail Naurdiev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
16-5-0Record26-8-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'2"Height6'0"
75,0"Reach74"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Alliance MMA· 1651 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamTop Team Salzburg
What's at stake
Ismail Naurdiev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Chance Rencountre carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1668
If they lose-14→ 1636
If they win+11→ 1694
If they lose-13→ 1670
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1591 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1608 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Chance RencountreIsmail Naurdiev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ismail Naurdiev82%
Chance Rencountre 18%Elo baseline: 55%
The Combat Edge model makes Ismail Naurdiev a 82% favorite over Chance Rencountre in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).
Ismail Naurdiev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1683 to 1650, a 33-point edge.
Ismail Naurdiev enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Chance Rencountre finishes 69% of wins inside the distance, Ismail Naurdiev 73%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.