Combat Edge Intelligence

Charles Johnson vs John Castañeda

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-9-0Record21-8-1
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'7"
70"Reach71"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Murcielago MMA· 1698 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamThe Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Charles JohnsonNow 1706
If they win+12→ 1718
If they lose-12→ 1694
John CastañedaNow 1696
If they win+12→ 1708
If they lose-12→ 1684

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1668 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.54
Sig. strikes / min
4.42
50%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.88
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.94
55%
Strike defense
54%
0.47
Takedown avg.
1.68
0%
Takedown accuracy
37%
67%
Takedown defense
74%
0.39
Submission avg.
0.13

Trajectory

Charles JohnsonJohn Castañeda
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (40%)
KO/TKO
8 (38%)
4 (20%)
Submission
6 (29%)
8 (40%)
Decision
7 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Charles Johnson72%
John Castañeda 28%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Charles Johnson a 72% favorite over John Castañeda in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1706 vs 1696), separated by just 10 points.

Charles Johnson finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, John Castañeda 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.