Combat Edge Intelligence

Charles Johnson vs Nkosi Ndebele

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-9-0Record14-3-0
FlyweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'10"
70"Reach75"
125 lbsWeight135 lbs
Murcielago MMA· 1703 avg Elo · 4 ratedTeamNova MMA Academy

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Charles JohnsonNow 1706
If they win+12→ 1718
If they lose-12→ 1694
Nkosi NdebeleNow 1707
If they win+16→ 1723
If they lose-16→ 1691

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1693 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1594 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.54
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
50%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.88
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
55%
Strike defense
TBD
0.47
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
67%
Takedown defense
TBD
0.39
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Charles JohnsonNkosi Ndebele
16501700202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (40%)
KO/TKO
7 (50%)
4 (20%)
Submission
0 (0%)
8 (40%)
Decision
7 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Nkosi Ndebele67%
Charles Johnson 33%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Nkosi Ndebele a 67% favorite over Charles Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1706 vs 1707), separated by just 1 points.

Nkosi Ndebele enters on a 6-fight win streak.

Charles Johnson finishes 60% of wins inside the distance, Nkosi Ndebele 50%.

Nkosi Ndebele carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.