Charles Oliveira vs Clay Guida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
37-11-0Record38-25-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
74"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamTeam Alpha Male· 1646 avg Elo · 20 rated
What's at stake
Charles Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1821
If they lose-19→ 1797
If they win+19→ 1617
If they lose-5→ 1593
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1768 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1670 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Charles OliveiraClay Guida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Charles Oliveira91%
Clay Guida 9%Elo baseline: 78%
The Combat Edge model makes Charles Oliveira a 91% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (78%).
Charles Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1816 to 1598, a 218-point edge.
Charles Oliveira enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Charles Oliveira finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Clay Guida 57%.
Charles Oliveira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.