Charles Oliveira vs Clay Guida
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
37-11-0Record38-25-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'7"
74"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamTeam Alpha Male
What's at stake
Charles Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Clay Guida carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1817
If they lose-19→ 1793
If they win+19→ 1618
If they lose-5→ 1594
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1766 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charles OliveiraClay Guida
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Charles Oliveira92%
Clay Guida 8%Elo baseline: 77%
The Combat Edge model makes Charles Oliveira a 92% favorite over Clay Guida in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).
Charles Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1599, a 213-point edge.
Charles Oliveira enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Clay Guida enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Charles Oliveira finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Clay Guida 57%.
Charles Oliveira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.