Charles Oliveira vs Cub Swanson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
37-11-0Record31-14-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'8"
74"Reach70"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamUFC Gym Costa Mesa
What's at stake
Charles Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Cub Swanson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1822
If they lose-14→ 1798
If they win+14→ 1762
If they lose-10→ 1738
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1766 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1677 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charles OliveiraCub Swanson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Charles Oliveira72%
Cub Swanson 28%Elo baseline: 59%
The Combat Edge model makes Charles Oliveira a 72% favorite over Cub Swanson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).
Charles Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1748, a 64-point edge.
Charles Oliveira enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Cub Swanson enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Charles Oliveira finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Cub Swanson 61%.
Charles Oliveira carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.