Combat Edge Intelligence

Charles Oliveira vs Darren Elkins

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

37-11-0Record29-13-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'10"
74"Reach71"
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamDuneland Vale Tudo

What's at stake

Charles Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Darren Elkins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Charles OliveiraNow 1812
If they win+8→ 1820
If they lose-16→ 1796
Darren ElkinsNow 1685
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-8→ 1677

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1767 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1658 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.35
Sig. strikes / min
3.40
55%
Strike accuracy
38%
3.24
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.34
49%
Strike defense
51%
2.22
Takedown avg.
2.87
40%
Takedown accuracy
20%
55%
Takedown defense
56%
2.61
Submission avg.
1.07

Trajectory

Charles OliveiraDarren Elkins
170017501800202420252026

Win method breakdown

10 (27%)
KO/TKO
9 (31%)
22 (59%)
Submission
6 (21%)
5 (14%)
Decision
14 (48%)

Combat Edge model read

Charles Oliveira80%
Darren Elkins 20%Elo baseline: 68%

The Combat Edge model makes Charles Oliveira a 80% favorite over Darren Elkins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (68%).

Charles Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1685, a 127-point edge.

Charles Oliveira enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Darren Elkins enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Charles Oliveira finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Darren Elkins 52%.

Charles Oliveira carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.