Charles Oliveira vs Grant Dawson
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
37-11-0Record24-3-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'10"Height5'10"
74"Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1824
If they lose-12→ 1800
If they win+12→ 1814
If they lose-12→ 1790
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1767 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charles OliveiraGrant Dawson
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Grant Dawson60%
Charles Oliveira 40%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 60% favorite over Charles Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Charles Oliveira's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1812 vs 1802), separated by just 10 points.
Charles Oliveira enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Charles Oliveira finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Grant Dawson 79%.
Charles Oliveira carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.