Charles Oliveira vs Hatsu Hioki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
37-11-0Record29-12-2
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'10"Height5'11"
74"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamAlive
What's at stake
Charles Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Hatsu Hioki carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1819
If they lose-17→ 1795
If they win+17→ 1657
If they lose-7→ 1633
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1766 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1581 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charles OliveiraHatsu Hioki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Charles Oliveira92%
Hatsu Hioki 8%Elo baseline: 73%
The Combat Edge model makes Charles Oliveira a 92% favorite over Hatsu Hioki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (73%).
Charles Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1640, a 172-point edge.
Charles Oliveira enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Hatsu Hioki enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Charles Oliveira finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Hatsu Hioki 59%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.