Charles Oliveira vs Kevin Lee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
37-11-0Record20-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height5'9"
74"Reach77"
155 lbsWeight170 lbs
Chute Boxe Diego LimaTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Charles Oliveira is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Kevin Lee carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+9→ 1821
If they lose-15→ 1797
If they win+15→ 1726
If they lose-9→ 1702
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1766 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Charles OliveiraKevin Lee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Charles Oliveira72%
Kevin Lee 28%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Charles Oliveira a 72% favorite over Kevin Lee in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Charles Oliveira holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1711, a 101-point edge.
Charles Oliveira enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Charles Oliveira finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Lee 60%.
Kevin Lee carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.